With abundant supply, the real estate market reflects a trend of diversified capital flows.

Since the beginning of 2023, the Vietnamese real estate market has begun to see a recovery in supply after a prolonged decline since 2018. According to research data from VARS IRE, the total supply has increased from over 40,000 units in 2022 to approximately 128,000 new units in 2025, an increase of about 88% compared to 2024 and the highest level in the 2019-2025 period.

The recovery in supply, coupled with favorable macroeconomic conditions such as low interest rates and abundant cash flow, further fueled the demand for properties "padded" during the previous period of scarcity, causing real estate prices to continuously rise and establish new benchmarks. Many investors recorded impressive returns, even doubling their asset value within just 1-2 years. Particularly in Q3 2025, apartment prices in some areas increased by approximately 500 million to 1 billion VND per unit, creating a wave of "quick investments - expecting short-term profits." Projects sold out as soon as they launched, and even high-priced transactions to acquire properties became common.

However, from the end of 2025, the market began to shift as supply improved significantly. A series of previously stalled projects had their legal issues resolved thanks to policy adjustments, along with the approval and implementation of over 20 large-scale projects, mainly in suburban areas connected to key transportation infrastructure . Supply not only increased in quantity but also improved in quality, with the emergence of integrated urban areas with synchronized amenities. In addition, supply also came from existing inventory and resale products from investors, significantly increasing the total market supply, estimated at around 200,000 units in 2026.

The increase in supply gives buyers more choices, from segments and regions to product types. Furthermore, thanks to flexible sales policies such as extended payment schedules and interest rate support, buyers can enter the market with an initial capital outlay of only about 10-30% of the product value. However, in the context of rapidly rising interest rates in a short period, market sentiment has become more cautious. Liquidity is no longer spread thinly but has become more selective, clearly reflecting the trend of capital flow diversification.

According to observations by members of the VARS Real Estate Market Research Council, the number of properties needing to be sold is increasing, especially from investors using financial leverage. Some properties have seen losses of around 100-300 million VND per unit, but successful transactions are mainly concentrated in apartments or projects with good locations, clear legal status, and reasonable prices. Meanwhile, in many areas that previously experienced rapid price increases, prices have shown signs of stabilizing or slight correction, increasing psychological pressure on investors.

This divergence stems not only from increased supply but also from a mismatch in price expectations between buyers and sellers. Sellers maintain high prices, while buyers tend to wait for more reasonable prices, even expecting deeper price cuts. Simultaneously, the investor structure is also clearly differentiated: a segment of long-term investors have achieved their expected profits and have stable cash flow, thus not facing selling pressure, while the demand for selling mainly comes from FOMO investors at high prices or those using significant financial leverage.

Despite slowing liquidity, real estate prices haven't fallen significantly due to persistently high input costs. Land costs currently account for approximately 30-40% of total project development costs and are trending sharply upward according to the new land price list. With this structure, when land prices increase by about 20%, applying the land use fee adjustment factor K (K>1), project development costs can increase by at least 6-8%. Many projects resuming after a long period of inactivity even face land use fee increases of 1.5-3 times. Furthermore, construction costs have increased by about 8-12%, coupled with increased financial costs due to a 2% increase in interest rates, resulting in a total project development cost increase of approximately 1.6%-2.7%. This reality forces developers to adjust selling prices upwards despite increasing liquidity pressure.

Furthermore, if sales progress falls short of targets, financial costs continue to increase, raising risks and putting pressure on cash flow for businesses. In this context, many developers have proactively implemented demand-stimulating policies such as preferential interest rates (fixed or capped), extended support periods, or increased discounts for early payment options to attract investment.

VARS IRE argues that, in a context of numerous options, investors' approaches to the market need to shift towards a more substantive direction. Evaluating whether a product is "cheap" or "expensive" should not be based solely on the selling price, but rather on its relative value to the area, its potential for generating cash flow, and its payback period. The market is no longer suitable for short-term investment strategies; it demands a medium- and long-term vision, linked to real-world use value and financial efficiency.

Therefore, investors should prioritize products that generate cash flow, are located in areas with clear infrastructure connections, transparent legal frameworks, and are developed by reputable developers. At the same time, they should limit the use of high financial leverage and define a sufficiently long-term investment strategy. For projects under construction, the holding period should be at least 3-5 years, until the project is completed and operational.

Furthermore, priority should be given to areas that already have or are expected to develop large residential communities, linked to the development of industrial zones , economic zones, or policies to attract residents. Conversely, sparsely populated areas without clear growth drivers, while still having long-term potential, carry higher liquidity risks and require a longer accumulation period.

Communicated by An Huy Group

According to Vietnam Logistics Review Magazine