Interest rates exceed 9% again: What will the real estate market be like at the end of the year?

Contrary to many people's expectations, rising interest rates may not necessarily lead to a sharp drop in real estate prices. Photo: Thien Tam

Deposit interest rates have once again exceeded 9% per year.

Following a sharp increase at the beginning of the year, many banks pushed deposit interest rates above 9% per annum. However, the State Bank of Vietnam subsequently repeatedly requested its members to adjust interest rates downwards to support businesses, establishing a new interest rate level around 7% per annum.

However, towards the end of June and the beginning of July, interest rates started to rise again.

According to the published interest rate list, Cake by VPBank maintains a "general level" of around 7% per year. Accordingly, the highest interest rate for a 12-month term is 7.4% per year when customers receive interest at the end of the term.

However, this bank applies a special incentive policy for new customers. When making their first deposit through the Cake Bank app, customers receive an additional 1.8% per year. As a result, the total interest rate for a 12-month term reaches 9.2% per year, higher than the 8.9% per year that was applied for a long time before.

Meanwhile, PVcomBank still offers the highest interest rate on the market. Accordingly, new customers depositing 2,000 billion VND or more, with a 12-month term and interest paid at the end of the term, will receive an interest rate of 10% per year.

Although these interest rates are mainly applied under special conditions, analysts believe that banks' increased deposit incentives indicate that pressure on capital is returning. This also means that banks' input costs will increase, putting pressure on lending interest rates in the coming period.

What will the real estate market be like at the end of the year?

Rising deposit interest rates typically have a direct impact on mortgage interest rates. Mr. Pham Duc Toan, General Director of EZ Property Investment and Development Joint Stock Company (EZ Property), stated that the current floating mortgage interest rate has risen to approximately 16.5% per year.

Lending interest rates are high and could even continue to rise if banks' funding costs increase. This is causing homebuyers to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, while businesses are also facing difficulties in sales.

According to Mr. Pham Duc Toan, transactions in the market are currently quite slow. People with a genuine need for housing still want to buy a house but are worried about the burden of debt repayment over many years. Meanwhile, investors are almost completely absent from the market due to the high cost of capital, significantly reducing investment efficiency.

However, contrary to many people's expectations, rising interest rates may not necessarily lead to a sharp drop in real estate prices.

Mr. Toan believes that a widespread price reduction is unlikely because the supply remains very limited. Recently, the number of new projects launched has not been high. Many projects are still facing legal procedural obstacles, preventing them from bringing their products to market.

Even the social housing segment, despite being widely discussed recently, is still progressing slower than expected. Many projects are still completing investment procedures, land clearance, or awaiting construction permits, meaning the actual supply has not improved significantly.

Accordingly, given the continued scarcity of supply, real estate prices are likely to remain stable or only undergo localized adjustments in projects facing significant financial pressure, rather than a widespread price drop across the entire market.

According to Mr. Toan, high interest rates are not the only problem facing the real estate market today.

"Besides interest rates, access to new sources of capital is the biggest bottleneck," he said.

According to him, obtaining bank loans is currently very difficult, even when businesses accept high interest rates. Banks tend to tightly control credit, especially in the real estate sector, making it impossible for many businesses to access cash flow to implement projects or continue developing land.

Not only businesses, but also homebuyers have to meet more conditions before receiving loan disbursements. This continues to affect the volume of transactions in the market.

From a market perspective, the second half of 2026 is expected to see a clear differentiation between segments in the real estate market. Projects with completed legal procedures, good construction progress, reputable developers, and long-term interest rate support policies will still have the opportunity to maintain liquidity.

In fact, over the past period, many large developers have proactively launched financial support programs such as principal debt grace periods, interest rate subsidies for many years, or fixed interest rates for 3-6 years to reduce the debt repayment pressure on buyers. These policies partially offset the impact of the market interest rate level which is trending upwards again.

Meanwhile, projects with incomplete legal documentation, unfavorable locations, or heavy reliance on bank loans are likely to continue facing difficulties in sales.

Experts also believe that if interest rates remain high for an extended period, investment capital will tend to shift to savings accounts or bonds with more attractive yields. With bank deposits already yielding returns of over 9% per year under certain promotional programs, many investors will carefully consider their options before investing in real estate, especially given that house prices remain high.

Source: Thanh Tra Online Newspaper